Tue 12 Nov 2013, 14:12 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Brent crude oil was slightly up in London trading Tuesday amid mixed signals on future oil supply from the Middle East. December Brent on London's ICE futures exchange was up 42 cents, or 0.4%, at $106.83 a barrel. The December contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 20 cents, or 0.2%, at $94.94 a barrel. Brent has rebounded slightly from lows last week, The market will likely be preoccupied by the expiry of the December Brent contract at the end of this week. Libya will remain on the market's radar as well as Iran with the next round of nuclear talks scheduled for 20th November.Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have pushed crude lower in recent days. The expectation is that if a deal is reached to lift current embargoes on Iranian oil, the market will be flooded with millions of barrels more crude, making the commodity less scarce and therefore cheaper.However, several incidents in other key Middle East production centers have again raised fears of flow disruption, and are pressuring prices higher.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 903.25 USD on Monday. This was 10.25 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 28,400 deals, the traded volume was below average. Until the opening bell of New York trade, oil markets had been in consolidation without displaying any greater price jumps. Although WTI had already fallen below its first support during morning trade, it failed to breach it sustainably. Due to Veterans Day in the USA, the trade volume remained below average, even though the U.S. holiday did not affect financial markets. Since economic indicators were also not on yesterday's agenda, guiding signals were lacking in this regard as well. Only with the start of NYMEX floor trade did oil futures inch up. After Brent and G.Oil breached their resistances at 106.00 USD and at 902.00 USD, respectively, technical buying orders, reinforced by the slightly bullish technical constellation and the low trade volume helped oil pirces to climb to their day's highs. Adding to oil's support was the weaker dollar vs. the euro and the fact that nuke talks with Iran had ended without an agreement. While WTI had to cede some of its gains in the evening, Brent and G.Oil settled at their day's highs.

After the RSI breached the 30%-line at the G.Oil and at the Brent chart, another buying signal was expectedly triggered. The Stochastic still is slightly bullish at all charts, but is not giving off any signals anymore and has moved out of the oversold territory by now. WTI has breached the upper limitation of its medium-term downtrend at 94.90 USD. Despite the buying signal from the RSI, we consider the technical constellation as only slightly bullish as there are no more signals to be expected from the Stochastic and the RSI is already in neutral zone again at crude charts. U.S.

Nymex gaining: After rising in late trade Monday, spurred by technical indicators, oil prices have been edging lower again in Asian trading this morning as guiding signals are still lacking. The traded NYMEX volume still is far below average for this time of day. Market players are waiting for European markets to open, for new signals from forex trading and the release of a few economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-11)
380cst $593
180cst $661
MGO $980

Very tight avails for 180 cst New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-11)
380cst $595
180cst $645
MGO $983

Singapore

Crude back up sligthly, gaining with WTI +$0.42. Singapore paper is mixed with -$1.00 for 180cst and -$0.25 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$0.85 and 380cst +$1.15 with MGO contracts Nov +$0.22 and Dec +$0.62. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$4.33 380cst +$6.13 and MGO +$0.38.

380cst $597
180cst $602
MGO $895

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-11)

380cst $615
180cst $658
MGO $975

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $575
(1.0 %) :$597
180cst: $605
(1.0 %):$ 627
MGO 0.1%S: $ 870

MGO  

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