Thu 17 Oct 2013, 14:31 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil futures were lower on Thursday after the U.S. Congress passed a bill to reopen the government and avoid a U.S debt default as concerns over the economic impact of the shutdown weighed. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at USD101.73 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.59%.

New York-traded oil futures held in a range between USD101.65 a barrel, the daily low and a session high USD102.31 a barrel. The November contract ended 0.49% lower at USD101.13 a barrel on Wednesday. Oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.78 a barrel, Wednesday’s low and resistance at USD102.58 a barrel, the high from October 14. Oil prices also remained under pressure after a report by the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 5.9 million barrels in the week to October 11, more than double forecasts for a build of 2.25 million barrels. On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for December delivery were down 0.40% to trade at USD110.13 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD8.40 a barrel.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX embarked on a rather calm trading session Wednesday. Although they tested first supports in the course of the day, these proved to be strong. The uncertainty regarding the U.S. budget crisis paralysed financial markets because it still was not clear whether or not both parties would really find agreement after House Republicans had presented a counterproposal to the Senate's draft. But at the opening of Wall Street in the late afternoon, stocks, the dollar as well as oil prices climbed. John Boehner (R), Speaker of the House of Representatives, had announced to bring to the House floor whatever the Senate passes to open the government and lift the U.S. debt ceiling. At night, both chambers of the U.S. Congress agreed on raising the country's borrowing authority, and thus averted default. Consequently, traders increasingly placed long positions after this positive news, pushing oil prices to their day's highs. With the breach of several resistances, technical buying orders kicked in. When the API released its weekly data on U.S. oil stockpilesm showing a massive build in crude reserves, the bearish effect failed to materialize.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 945.00 USD on Wednesday. This was 4.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 88,500 deals, the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic is bullish for WTI as well as for G.Oil and has given off a buying signal. At the Brent chart, however, the indicator's signal is not as strong yet. But in return, the upward trend channels at ICE charts, which formed last week, are still intact. From a mere technical perspective, we consider the current market situation as neutral to bullish as the Stochastic's buying signals have been triggered close to the 50%-line and are thus not as strong as if they were given off in oversold territory. Still, technical indicators point to further price movements within the ICE uptrend.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: Market players now have to digest the Congress' preliminary deal to end the budget standoff in the USA and to raise the country's borrowing authority. They also need to pin down last night's bearish API report while waiting for market liquidity to increase again. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the performance of European markets, new signals from forex trading and today's economic indicators. It is not clear yet which U.S. indicators are going to be released shortly after the shutdown has ended.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-10)
380cst $608
180cst $665
MGO $1004

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-10)
380cst $611
180cst $657
MGO $1007

Singapore (closed due to bank holiday)

380cst $617
180cst $622
MGO $935

Fujairah (delivered indications 17-10)

380cst $618
180cst $675
MGO $1005

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $588
(1.0 %) :$610
180cst: $618
(1.0 %):$ 640
MGO 0.1%S: $ 912

MGO  

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