Fri 20 Sep 2013, 14:11 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



After yesterday's losses oil futures at ICE and NYMEX bounced up somewhat again this morning. Whilst futures at ICE breached their first resistances in a rather technical counterreaction, the WTI October front month contract remained far from its resistances. The October contract of the US crude oil benchmark even slid slightly below yesterday's levels. However, this is due to the fact that this contract is going to expire this evening. Consequently, market players already focus on the contracts for the following months - which traded slightly above yesterday's settlement level. As to market fundamentals, there are no breaking news, currently. According to Syria's deputy prime minister Qadri Jamil, the Syrian regime seems to be prone to agree to a truce. In an interview published in the Guardian he said: "Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side. This zero balance of forces will not change for a while." A proposal for a truce could be presented at an international peace conference that is sought by the West and Syria.

After the sharp rise oil markets had seen in US-trading on Wednesday, prices initially consolidated in a narrow range on a high level Thursday morning. Futures at ICE and NYMEX tested their first resistances several times but momentum was not enough for a sustainable break above these bars. It took market participants some time to find direction as Wednesday's sharp rise (triggered by the Fed's decisions) was regarded as exaggerated. Technical selling then made oil futures drop below their first supports. Since the dollar edged higher after the release of better than expected US-economic data prices both in London and New York fell further down in US-trading. News saying that Iran's new leadership has shown ready to negotiate to resolve the dispute over its notorious nuclear program added to pressure. Moreover , there were also reports noting that Libya is likely to achieve its goal of increasing its output to 700,000 - 800,000 barrels ahead of the weekend. Therefore, traders cut the long positions they had raised the day before. After having slipped below several supports, oil futures finally settled lower than they were at the beginning of trading.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 934.50 USD on Thursday. This was 10.25 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 53,600 deals, the traded volume was about on average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator are converging at the WTI and Brent charts this morning, and have already met at the Gasoil chart. Therefore, the indicator has lost its bullish impact. The RSI is still in neutral territory at all charts. In all, we therefore assess the technical situation as neutral this morning. In case of a sustainable break below yesterday's lows, however, there might be a technical selling signal.

U.S.

Nymex losing: Oil futures traded in a very narrow range this morning in Asia. After the ups and downs of the past two days, market players are nervous tending to stay on the sidelines. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day as the WTI's October front month contract expires today. Market players are now waiting for European markets to open and for new signals from forex trading. Since no important economic indicators are due today, it is widely expected that trading will remain rather calm unless there is groundbreaking fundamental news.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 19-09)
380cst $613
180cst $681
MGO $1006
New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 19-09)
380cst $617
180cst $661
MGO $1009

Singapore

Crude is dropping again, losing with WTI -$1.86. Singapore paper is turning bearish as well, losing with -$2.10 for 180cst and -$1.35 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$4.60 and 380cst -$4.60 with MGO contracts Oct +$1.48 and Noc +$1.48. The cargo market is in line with crude and paper, losing with 180cst -$2.95, 380cst -$3.26 and MGO -0.27.

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended losses by app. $5.0 during Asian Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were seen between flat to +$3.5 above cargo prices. Asian market is expected to be quieter as several Asian countries are closed on a major holiday. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

380cst $611
180cst $615
MGO $905

Fujairah (delivered indications 20-09)

380cst $612
180cst $670
MGO $975

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

In September (starting week 4) ESSO Antwerp will start working on maintenance of their refinery. Because of this, local Antwerp suppliers will need to buy more product in Rotterdam, therefor long waitinglines at Rotterdam refineries and storage are to be expected, with premiums on price as a result.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $596
(1.0 %) :$617
180cst: $614
(1.0 %):$ 640
MGO 0.1%S: $ 905

MGO  

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Danish bunker supplier Malik Supply adds two new staff across its Fredericia and Aalborg offices.

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