Fri 18 Jan 2013, 13:03 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices slipped below $111 a barrel on Friday but retained the bulk of the previous session’s gains, supported by stronger economic growth in China and ongoing supply concerns after United Nations talks with Iran failed and Algeria’s hostage crisis continued. Brent crude briefly edged higher after the UN said that nuclear inspectors had failed to reach a deal with Iran to unblock an investigation into suspected bomb research on Friday after two days of intensive discussions. The absence of a breakthrough was a new setback for diplomatic efforts to allay international concerns over Tehran’s atomic ambitions and avert the threat of a new Middle East war.

After oil futures had soon reached their day's low in electronic trading at ICE and NYMEX, they could gain ground again Thursday morning after first supports at 109.45 dollars Brent and 93.80 dollars G.Oil proved to be strong. When first resistances were breached in further trading, triggering technical buying orders, prices edged higher, following the rising euro. In the afternoon, upside was accelerated after the released economic data on the U.S. job and housing market had been better than expected. The figures particularly supported NYMEX crude. Initial jobless claims in the USA fell to a 5-year low and housing starts increased by 12%, indicating a recovery of the economy and thus, of oil demand. Spurred by investors' optimism, WTI traded up to 96.00 dollars, which is the highest level since September 2012. While NYMEX crude could maintain its profits, oil products gave them off completely after weather forecasts for the USA reported continuing mild weather, leading also to losses with Brent. The strong support at 110.10 dollars Brent, which initially was a resistance, limited the price slump and helped oil futures to trade up again. Thus, crude contracts in London and New York closed at their day's high. Economic data released in China at night were only slightly better than expected and did not really have an impact on the oil market at the release. But as they were generally bullish, they gave slight upside in the early morning.

ICE Gasoil contract for February delivery settled at 952.50 dollars on Thursday. This was 2.50 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 55,200 deals the traded volume was slightly above average.

The stochastic's lines have crossed at the WTI and Brent chart yesterday, giving off bullish signals. The indicator is neutral for G.Oil at the moment while the RSI still shows an overbought market situation, except for Brent. Thus, traders's only see upward potential at ICE. But the strong overbought level of WTI could limit profit-taking.

U.S.

Nymex Access neutral to bullish: Oil prices trade up during morning trading. The price level is currently supported by traders' optimism after positive U.S. economic data released yesterday and by the hostage-taking in Algeria. The strong euro and better-than-expected economic data out of China also boosts the market. Trading interest at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European market to open and for signals from forex trading. In terms of economic data, only the U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index (estimate) will be released today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-01)
380cst $629
180cst $702
MGO $1025

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-01)
380cst $637
180cst $675
MGO $1020

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is bullish with +$1.29. Paper for Jan are bullish, rising with 180cst +$7.90 and for 380cst +$7.75 , Feb contracts are rising as well with 180cst +$7.90, 380st +$7.75. The cargo market is reacting bullish, rising with 180cst +$4.23, 380cst +$3.01 and MGO -$0.03.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices rebounded from previous day loss by $3.0-4.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday. The latest Singapore Heavy Residual inventory reported a build of +0.65 mbbl to 18.43 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen at $3.5- 5.0 above cargo prices as crude strengthened in latter sessions. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $635
180 cst $642
MDO $945

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

There were a few suppliers who were unable to supply for prompt deliveries due to busy schedules. The port of Rotterdam and Antwerp are experiencing difficulties with LSFO for prompt deliveries due to operational delays. Due to the tightness of LSFO in Antwerp the premiums are expected to be higher.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 615
(1.0 %) :$ 645
180cst: $ 645
(1.0 %):$ 675
MGO 0.1%S: $ 950

MGO  

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